As you probably already know, California’s ballot counting process is slower than most other states, because California is by far the most populous state in the country (almost as large as Canada) and because the state is committed to ensuring that every person who can vote has the opportunity to do so.

These laws include universal vote-by-mail ballots, same-day voter registration, the counting of ballots postmarked by Election Day, and a process where voters whose signatures are challenged can confirm with their registrar that they in fact voted. It takes time, and we all wish it was faster, but the net effect is positive: California is a voter enfranchisement state.

As you’ve probably seen, this process also creates conditions where bad actors (and people who don’t know any better) are able to sow doubt in results and spin ludicrous conspiracy theories about the integrity of the vote.

We saw this in the Los Angeles mayoral election, where reality TV star Spencer Pratt started Election Night in second and has since dropped to third, finishing with roughly as much of the vote as Donald Trump secured in 2024 – in an overwhelmingly Democratic city. It was not a particularly surprising result – Pratt’s campaign was designed for national clicks, not local votes – but the conspiracy theories are even more absurd when you consider the final outcome. In the general election, incumbent Democratic Mayor Karen Bass would have much rather run against Pratt, a political novice, than sitting City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a progressive with a significant constituency.

Why do these shifts happen? In California, the earlier electorate is much older, and that disproportionately includes Republicans. Younger voters tend to vote later, and they are disproportionately Democratic and/or progressive.

In this particular election cycle, there was an additional wrinkle: millions of Democratic voters held onto their ballots as late as they could, closely monitoring polling and vibes in the Governor’s race, where there were earlier concerns about Democrats getting locked out in California’s top-two primary. This created conditions where the late voter surge was even more Democratic than usual, an impact more pronounced in Democratic-majority counties.

Now, let’s quickly rundown some key races. During the Proposition 50 campaign last year, California’s redistricting initiative in response to Texas’ mid-year redistricting, many said it would net Democrats five House seats. The reality is a little more complicated; these aren’t all cakewalks; but the primary election results are very promising.

In CA-01, Democratic State Senator Mike McGuire will face off against Republican James Gallagher in the general election. Gallagher is currently at 44.1% and McGuire at 40%, but the combined Democratic vote is sitting at 58.8%, and that margin is still expected to rise. This remains a solid Democratic flip in November.

In CA-03, Democratic Congressman Ami Bera will face off against Republican Robb Tucker. Bera is ahead with 35% compared to Tucker at 29.8%, but here again, the current combined Democratic vote is 55.3% compared to Republicans at 43.7%. Bera is almost certain to win his seat.

CA-06 caused some heartburn on Election Night, with Republican-turned-Independent Kevin Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield closing the night in the top two, but the blue surge did its thing. Now, Kiley sits at 24.5% with Democrat Richard Pan close behind at 23.2%. Here, the combined Democratic vote sits at 55.3% while the combined Republican/Republican-until-a-few-months-ago vote stands at 44.6%. Pan is in a strong position, but this race is still worth monitoring, as Kiley will try to position his candidacy as post-partisan. It probably won’t work, but in this political climate, it’s a smarter gambit than most.

In CA-09, Democratic Congressman Josh Harder can replace the drapes in his office. He’s sitting at 60.8%.

In CA-13, Democratic Congressman Adam Gray is in good shape. He’s currently at 42%, and the combined Democratic performance here is 59.7%. He’ll face Republican Kevin Lincoln, who currently has 27.9% of the vote, while the combined Republican vote is 43.3%. The Cook Political Report ranks this seat as Lean Democratic, but with these results, I suspect we could see a rating shift soon. Gray’s got this.

In CA-21, Democratic Congressman Jim Costa is currently locked in at 42.3%. He will face Republican Kyle Kirkland, who is at 26.6%. Combined, Democrats currently hold 57.7% of the vote, while Republicans hold 41.8%. Costa will prevail in November.

CA-22 is an interesting race, the last Toss Up House seat in California per the Cook Political Report. Republican Congressman David Valado has long been a thorn in Democratic sides, winning reelection in an overwhelmingly Democratic district (except in the 2018 blue wave). Prop 50 shifted this seat from an 11-point Democratic advantage to a 15-point Democratic advantage, but we can’t take anything for granted when Valadao is on the ballot. Still, he’s currently at 40.7% of the vote, which suggests he’s in serious trouble come November.

On the Democratic side, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee-backed Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains lost to progressive Randy Villegas, the two sitting at 27.1% and 32.2% respectively. This was a big win for grassroots activists across CA-22 and the state who found it frustrating that the DCCC would endorse the only Democrat in the state legislature who voted against putting Prop 50 on the ballot. That said, national Republicans also wanted Villegas to advance as evidenced by their Super PAC spending, and it’s important for Democrats to unite behind Villegas, as the DCCC has, and do the work necessary to flip this seat.

In CA-27, Democratic Congressman George Whitesides is currently narrowly behind Republican Jason Gibbs (40.6% v. 41%), but this is an illusion. The combined Democratic vote is 59%. Whitesides will win in a walkoff.

For those interested in flipping House seats, CA-40 is a disappointment but not a particularly surprising one. It’s going to be a Republican v. Republican showdown between two sitting Members of Congress, Ken Calvert and Young Kim. Here, a fractured Democratic field cost us the chance to compete. While Calvert is at 34.9% and Kim is at 20.7%, the combined Democratic field dwarfs both of them at 42.9%. It would have been a steep climb to win even if a Democrat did pull through, but I guess we’ll never know.

Down in CA-45, this is a race we need to watch. Democrat Derek Tran is advancing with 53.8% of the vote, and he will likely face off against Republican Chuong Vo, sitting at 15.3% of the vote. However, the combined Republican vote is currently at 46.2%, and that’s a little too close for comfort. The Cook Political Report considers this a Lean Democratic district, and they may be on to something.

In CA-47, Democratic Congressman Dave Min currently sits at 45.5%, and he will face off against Republican Jenny Rae Le Roux, who has 25% of the vote. Democrats combined are at 54.3% and Republicans combined are at 43%. We’d prefer that margin to a bit higher, but by any metric, Min is heavily favored. Still, this one is worth monitoring.

Meanwhile, CA-48 is a race to watch. The general election will come down to Republican Jim Desmond (at 39%) v. Democrat Marni von Wilpert (at 20.9%). The Democratic field here was massive and the primary got raucous at times. Uniting Democrats toward victory will be a top priority for the general election. Combined, Democrats are sitting at 53.2% while Republicans are sitting at 45.9%. This is the other Lean Democratic seat per Cook Political Report benchmarks, and we should expect that ranking to hold for now.

In CA-49, Democratic Congressman Mike Levin has locked in 55.8% of the vote. He’ll be up against Republican Armen Kurdian, who is currently at 26.1%. The combined Republican vote is 44.2%. Levin should be fine.

All in all, Prop 50 is working as intended, but Democrats still have work to do to ensure that California’s blue wall holds in the quest to take back the House. We can hope that the usual trend prevails, and Democratic turnout is higher in the general election.

By Donald Lathbury, Communications Director and Strategist, Activate America

One of the Yes on 50 Campaign’s key messages was that 50 would create 5 new Democratic districts. The reality, while still very positive, is a bit more nuanced.

Prior to Prop 50’s passage, the 3 consensus flippable Republican seats were CA-22 held by Rep. David Valadao, CA-40 held by Rep. Young Kim and CA-41 held by Rep. Ken Calvert. All three of these districts, while considered competitive, did have a slight Republican lean (the PVI score for CA-22 and 40 was R+1 and for CA-41 it was R+2). Additionally, it was widely assumed that four incumbent Democrats (Congressmembers Adam Gray, David Min, Derek Tran, and George Whitseides) would face challenging re-elections battles.

The post Prop 50 landscape is significantly altered. There are now only two consensus flip seats, CA-22 held by Rep. David Valadao (which was on the pre-Prop 50 list of competitive races) and CA-48 (a formerly safe Republican seat held by Darrell Issa that is so altered that Issa choose not to run for re-election). Two other formerly safe seats have effectively been flipped, Congressional Districts 1 and 3. One District, CA 40, has become more Republican to the benefit of adjacent Democratically held seats. In fact, all the previously thought to be endangered Democrats have been significantly strengthened. Below is a more detailed breakdown of the seats most impacted by Proposition 50.

California’s 1st Congressional District

Located in the north of California, prior to Prop 50 it ran up to the Oregon border. Post Prop 50, the two largest cities in the district are Chico and Santa Rosa. This District has transformed from being solidly red with a 17.9% Republican registration advantage to a district with a 9.3% Democratic registration advantage. The real competition now is on the Democratic side, where State Senator Mike McGuire and Audrey Denney (who ran multiple times against LaMalfa in the old district boundaries) are running against each other in the Primary.

One last item to note about CA 1, there will be a special election to fill out the remainder of the term. This election will be for the current Congressional District, i.e. the very Republican leaning pre-Prop 50 version.

California’s 3rd Congressional District

California’s new 3rd Congressional district is nestled between the eastern Sacramento area and the Nevada border. The largest cities in the district are Folsom, Rancho Cordova, and the portions of Sacramento that overlap with CA-03. The “incumbent” Kevin Kiley saw his District from one with a plus 6% Republican registration advantage to a plus 7% Democratic registration. In response, not only did Kiley leave his Congressional District, he left the Republican Party. Kiley is now running in the adjacent 6th Congressional District as an independent. Technically this is an open seat because the current Democratic Representative from the 6^th District, Ami Bera, is running in the CA 3. The 6^th Congressional district is roughly as competitive (Democratic registration advantage of 8%) as the 3^rd, so all of this motion can neatly be summarized as Prop 50 has de facto flipped the Kiley seat.

California’s 22nd Congressional District

California’s 22nd Congressional district is in California’s Central Valley. The major population centers are Bakersfield, parts of Fresno and Delano. Republican David Valadao has consistently demonstrated that he can win his district despite a sizable Democratic voter registration advantage. Prior to passing 50, his district had an 11% Democratic registration advantage, now his new district has a 15% Democratic advantage. To put this 3% shift in perspective, Valadao was re-elected by 5% over Democratic challenger Rudy Salas in 2024. CA-22 will very likely be the most competitive race in California.

On the Democratic side, two strong candidates are competing: Visalia School Board member Randy Villegas and Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains.

On the optimistic side, Valadao did lose during the Blue Wave Election in 2018, and early indications are that 2026 will be a similarly good year for Democrats. Still, this is hardly guaranteed, and CA-22 should be considered a toss-up. Barring unforeseen changes in the political climate, CA-22 should be considered the top priority flippable seat in California.

California’s 41st Congressional District

The 41st has already been effectively flipped. The new 41st Congressional district is very different from the old one represented by Ken Calvert. In fact, just over half the voters in the old 41st are now in the new 40th district. Calvert’s entry into CD-40 against fellow Republican incumbent Young Kim is therefore understandable. The new 41st district now has a 19% Democratic registration advantage. Incumbent Democratic Representative Linda Sánchez from the adjacent 38th Congressional District is running for this seat.

California’s 48th Congressional District

Split almost equally between Riverside County and San Diego County, California’s new 48th Congressional district has sharply swung from a district with a 12% Republican registration advantage to a 4% Democratic registration advantage. Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa decided not to run so this is an open seat that will count as a flip if a Democrat prevails.

The Democratic side is very crowded; there are 9 Democrats on the ballot with varying degrees of viability. The Republican side has coalesced around San Diego Supervisor Jim Desmond. CA-48 should be considered a toss-up. Along with CA-22, CA-48 will be a priority in California.

HOLD DISTRICTS

Three California Republican House seats were flipped in the 2024 Cycle, and Prop 50 bolsters the chances that the four Freshman Democrats Congressmembers Adam Gray in CA-13, George Whitesides in CA-27, Derek Tran in CA-45, and Dave Min in CA-47) will be reelected.

Congressman Gray has a 14% Democratic registration advantage. Congressman Whitesides’ district nudged slightly more Democratic with Prop 50, going from a 13% registration advantage to 14%. Congressman Tran’s district has gone from a plus 3% Democratic registration advantage to a plus 8%. Congressman Min’s district has a relatively small 4% Democratic registration advantage, but he has vastly outraised his competition. This should be a solid Democratic district, but it’s one worth monitoring.

California’s 40th Congressional District

One final district should be remarked upon. California’s 40th Congressional district is by design Republican. The byproduct of skewing CA 40 so red is an entirely eliminated Republican district (old CA 41), a now competitive CA 48, and a strengthened Democratic incumbent in CA 47. The new 40th district has a 9% Republican registration advantage.

As previously mentioned, Rep. Calvert is running against Rep. Kim for this seat. This means the two most prolific Californian Republican fundraisers in Congress will be focused on each other rather than a Democrat. In fact, only Rep. Ro Khana has raised more money than either Calvert or Kim this year in the California’s House delegation.

In a large Democratic wave election, which 2026 certainly could be, some districts similar to CA-40 could be flipped elsewhere in the nation. To state that CA-40 is very unlikely to turn blue does not mean it cannot be won by the right candidate in a very favorable political climate.

SUMMARY

The post Proposition 50 landscape is fundamentally different, and much more advantageous to Democrats than before. Democrats have effectively already flipped three seats, and there remain two Republican-held seats that will require a concerted effort to flip, Valadao in CA-22 and Issa in CA-48. CA-40, though unlikely to flip, could come into play with a combination of a strong Democratic candidate and a political climate that exceeds even the current optimistic expectations. All four of the previously competitive Democratic-held districts are now strongly positioned for Democratic victories this cycle, although CA-47 especially is a district that should be monitored if outside spending drastically changes the fundraising dynamic.

By Andre Charles, Political Director, Activate America

In fact, dismantling minority voting rights has been something of a passion project for Chief Justice John Roberts. For background, in 2013 he wrote the majority opinion in Shelby County v. Holder that struck down Section 5 and 4(b), effectively ending the preclearance system that made states get permission from the federal government before changing any voting laws.

This was put into place to specifically protect jurisdictions with histories of racial discrimination from not allowing that to happen again. And it should come as no surprise that following this ruling, southern states rushed to change their voting rights laws to disenfranchise minorities.

Then in 2021, he joined the majority opinion of Brnovich v. DNC, which made it much harder to challenge discriminatory voting practices under Section 2 by raising the legal bar for discrimination.

And now with this latest ruling on Louisiana v. Callais, he once again was a major player in striking down Section 2. The Supreme Court has now officially ruled against the use of race in drawing Congressional maps — even when those maps were created to comply with the Voting Rights Act.

It’s worth repeating this point: this court ruled that laws designed to protect voters from racism violate the constitution because they rely on race! This decision will make it dramatically harder for minority communities to challenge maps that dilute their voting power and further weaken what little is left of the law.

But when the system seems to be working against us at every turn, we fight even harder.

Yes, they have been prevailing at the courts, but we’re going to outwork them in the end. They’ve been planning this for decades. That means we have to plan longer, work harder, and stay in this fight even when it gets more difficult.

The work that each and every one of you puts in matters. It always has — but in moments like this, it matters even more.

One organization that’s been doing the Lord’s work for decades is the NAACP Legal Defense Fund. Since 1940, they’ve been the leading nonprofit fighting the legal battles on behalf of people and communities that are being unjustly discriminated against — including redrawn maps, restrictive voting laws, and voter roll purges.

I strongly encourage you to support their crucial work at this moment. If you’re looking for a place to donate today, here’s a link to support their work.

In the fight for progress, there are always bleak days. And I know that over the last ten years, it feels like they’re coming more and more often. In these dark moments, I always return back to the words of Martin Luther King, Jr. when he said that “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.”

For me, this isn’t an inspirational quote per se, because I know that that bending doesn’t happen automatically. Rather, it’s a reminder to redouble our efforts. If that moral arc is to bend, it is only because we are actively working to bend it.

—Nathaniel Markowitz, Executive Director, Activate America

In that spirit, Activate America has decided to launch a Substack where we can share our thoughts, analysis, and the calls to action that we need in this moment to turn back the MAGA tide. You’ll get musings from me, recordings of our webinars, and the thoughts and opinions from members of our team.

One thing that inspired me to do this is the many conversations I’ve been having with friends, colleagues and supporters over the last year or so. A common theme throughout these discussions has been that so many people were looking for someone to stand up, to take the lead, to do something. They were looking to elected officials, the Democratic party, or elites in the media to fight back, and many have become incredibly frustrated when it felt like no one was stepping up. But I have always believed that WE are the party, or, as Barack Obama famously said, “we are the ones we’ve been waiting for.” Activate America was founded on the premise that we “ordinary people” can be the change we want to see in the world.

In that spirit, I’m hoping that future posts will help fill that void for you if you’re feeling it, and even if you’re not, offer a sense of hope for the future. I’ve never been a “wait for someone to come and fix it” kind of guy. On the contrary, I’m more of a “roll up my sleeves and get my hands dirty” sort. And I’m looking forward to sharing what that looks like with you in the weeks and months ahead.

Who knows what this year will bring. There is a lot of talk about a Blue Wave in November, but here at Activate America, we know that waves don’t just happen – they’re created. And so I hope you’ll find something in this Substack that helps motivate or guide you to how you can be a part of creating that wave.

Thank you, and I’m grateful that you’re with us in this fight!

—Doug Linney, Founder, Activate America